May 2020 Commentary

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Friday, May 1, 2020

The wildness in stocks continued in April, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+11.1% for the month) and S&P 500 (+12.7%) ending three-month losing streaks, while the Nasdaq Composite ended a two-month skid with a massive rebound of 15.5%. It was the Dow’s best month since 1987. In Toronto, the TSX Composite surged 10.5% while the smaller TSX-Venture was a monster, screaming ahead 20.8%. Stocks collapsed in March as panic over Covid-19 reached fever pitch. Signs that diagnoses and deaths of the novel coronavirus are leveling and even declining have helped inspire some buying again as traders theorize that any lasting effects are now baked in. It’s arguable that the V-shaped recovery has come too fast and furious, though. Instead of looking at revenue and profit expectations – which have been gouged because of economies worldwide shutting down to prevent disease spread – traders are really leaning on the government and Federal Reserve to put economies on their back and carry them through a possible recession. We are not so sure that it is prudent to ignore the vacuum of economic fundamentals. It may come back to bite Wall Street in the behind. There are no certainties in the stock market, but in this case, volatility we believe is almost guaranteed in May.

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